Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.404293 13.347833 15.469342 17.950137 20.764204 23.849738 27.481288
2025-01-05 8.355931 10.993862 14.160360 18.208482 23.209951 29.148330 36.690215
2025-01-12 6.343264 9.243126 13.019738 18.220999 25.109151 33.820272 45.555645
2025-01-19 4.999983 7.978157 12.143736 18.257835 26.838877 38.266701 54.410285
2025-01-26 4.409058 7.592996 12.317888 19.621293 30.357542 45.247691 67.069290
2025-02-02 3.834561 7.094415 12.205168 20.487081 33.179177 51.426363 79.041897
2025-02-09 3.363546 6.655091 12.084763 21.270493 35.884113 57.575176 91.343588
2025-02-16 2.836146 6.008782 11.517366 21.243263 37.293289 61.863886 101.165733
2025-02-23 2.324513 5.283011 10.693805 20.663730 37.721592 64.634054 108.824235
2025-03-02 1.878908 4.587063 9.806091 19.838705 37.621787 66.509569 115.151157
2025-03-09 1.603599 4.177337 9.375384 19.748582 38.711755 70.303459 124.656938
2025-03-16 1.350306 3.758897 8.859594 19.425797 39.339286 73.342674 133.082407
2025-03-23 1.241858 3.658120 8.983661 20.364021 42.357197 80.676636 149.152697
2025-03-30 1.094302 3.431659 8.813717 20.708559 44.323229 86.360070 162.840983
2025-04-06 0.944539 3.163340 8.509974 20.741798 45.698757 91.096030 175.190625
2025-04-13 0.818016 2.924598 8.232501 20.789499 47.091844 95.932475 187.960949
2025-04-20 0.793215 2.969073 8.624259 22.314870 51.510430 106.486218 211.273104
2025-04-27 0.738457 2.911359 8.758727 23.282021 54.872159 115.276270 231.866221
2025-05-04 0.683894 2.840744 8.849547 24.156173 58.102028 123.987916 252.719191
2025-05-11 0.595799 2.636788 8.564505 24.125905 59.435626 129.180758 267.407022
2025-05-18 0.496752 2.363880 8.047833 23.479521 59.393420 131.712738 277.290940
2025-05-25 0.404403 2.081935 7.452108 22.558801 58.660251 132.826585 284.542922
2025-06-01 0.350396 1.928327 7.196645 22.458191 59.729912 137.557293 298.848587